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Blog Entry

Beer's Bracket - 02/25/13

Posted on: February 25, 2013 8:45 am
 

Records are prior to yesterday's games but seeding considers yesterdays results.

Auto bids are in CAPS and First Four games are italicized.  Championship: Indianapolis (M) / Los Angeles (W) winner vs. Washington DC (E) / Arlington (S) winner.

Indianapolis (M)
(1M) INDIANA (24-3) vs. (16M) MERCER (18-9) @Dayton
(8M) MEMPHIS (24-3) vs. (9M) Cincinnati (19-8) @Dayton
(5M) Colorado State (19-6) vs. (12M) BELMONT (20-6) @Kansas City
(4M) Kansas State (21-5) vs. (13M) LOUISIANA TECH (23-3) @Kansas City
(6M) Illinois (19-8) vs. (11M) La Salle (18-7) @Philadelphia
(3M) GEORGETOWN (21-4) vs. (14M) DAVIDSON (20-7) @Philadelphia
(7M) North Carolina State (19-8) vs. (10M) Iowa State (19-8) @Lexington
(2M) FLORIDA (22-4) vs. (15M) STONY BROOK (19-6) @Lexington

Los Angeles (W)
(1W) GONZAGA (26-2) vs. (16W) NORFOLK STATE (18-10) / SOUTHERN (17-8) @Salt Lake
(8W) Virginia Commonwealth (22-6) vs. (9W) North Carolina (18-8) @Salt Lake
(5W) Oklahoma State (20-6) vs. (12W) Villanova (17-10) / Kentucky (19-8) @San Jose
(4W) Wisconsin (19-8) vs. (13W) BUCKNELL (21-5) @San Jose
(6W) Pittsburgh (20-7) vs. (11W) California (18-9) @Salt Lake
(3W) ARIZONA (23-4) vs. (14W) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (18-9) @Salt Lake
(7W) San Diego State (18-7) vs. (10W) Colorado (18-8) @Auburn Hills
(2W) Michigan State (21-5) vs. (15W) LONG BEACH STATE (15-10) @Auburn Hills

Washington DC (E)
(1E) Duke (23-3) vs. (16E) ROBERT MORRIS (20-9) @Philadelphia
(8E) Oklahoma (18-8) vs. (9E) UCLA (19-7) @Philadelphia
(5E) Marquette (19-7) vs. (12E) MIDDLE TENNESSEE (25-4) @San Jose
(4E) Ohio State (19-7) vs. (13E) AKRON (21-4) @San Jose
(6E) UNLV (20-7) vs. (11E) St. Mary's (23-5) @Dayton
(3E) Louisville (22-5) vs. (14E) VALPARAISO (21-7) @Dayton
(7E) SAINT LOUIS (21-5) vs. (10E) Creighton (22-7) @Auburn Hills
(2E) Michigan (21-4) vs. (15E) NIAGARA (17-11) @Auburn Hills

Arlington (S)
(1S) KANSAS (23-4) vs. (16S) NORTHEASTERN (18-10) / CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (13-10) @Kansas City
(8S) Oregon (22-6) vs. (9S) Missouri (19-8) @Kansas City
(5S) Butler (21-6) vs. (12S) Boise State (16-8) / Maryland (19-8) @Austin
(4S) Syracuse (22-5) vs. (13S) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (19-3) @Austin
(6S) Minnesota (18-9) vs. (11S) Temple (18-8) @Austin
(3S) NEW MEXICO (23-4) vs. (14S) HARVARD (16-7) @Austin
(7S) Notre Dame (21-6) vs. (10S) WICHITA STATE (24-5) @Lexington
(2S) MIAMI (FLA.) (22-4) vs. (15S) MONTANA (17-6) @Lexington

Last Six Pack: La Salle (18-7), Temple (18-8), Villanova (17-10), Kentucky (19-8), Boise State (16-8), Maryland (19-8)

Added: Kentucky (19-8), Maryland (19-8), CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (13-10)
Dropped: Ole Miss (20-7), Baylor (15-11), High Point (14-11)

Moving Up: KANSAS (23-4), GONZAGA (26-2), GEORGETOWN (21-4), Ohio State (19-7), Colorado State (19-6), UNLV (20-7), North Carolina State (19-8), San Diego State (18-7), SAINT LOUIS (21-5), North Carolina (18-8)
Moving Down: MIAMI (FLA.) (22-4), Michigan State (21-5), Syracuse (22-5), Butler (21-6), Pittsburgh (20-7), Virginia Commonwealth (22-6), Oregon (22-6), Cincinnati (19-8), WICHITA STATE (24-5), Colorado (18-8)

Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups
Game 1: (2E) Michigan vs. (15E) Niagara @ Auburn Hills: Trey Burke (18.6 PPG) / Antoine Mason (18.9 PPG)
Game 2: (3W) Arizona vs. (14W) South Dakota State @ Salt Lake: Mark Lyons (15.3 PPG) / Nate Wolters (23.1 PPG)
Game 3: (3E) Louisville vs. (14E) Valparaiso @ Dayton: Russ Smith (18.4 PPG) / Ryan Broekhoff (16.1 PPG)
Game 4: (6M) Illinois vs. (11M) La Salle @ Philadelphia: Brandon Paul (16.4 PPG) / Ramon Galloway (17.3 PPG)
Game 5: (6E) UNLV vs. (11E) St. Mary's @ Dayton: Anthony Bennett (17.6 PPG) / Matthew Dellavedova (16 PPG)

Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance)
Game 1: (10E) Creighton vs. (2E) Michigan @ Auburn Hills: Doug McDermott (22.5 PPG) / Trey Burke (18.6 PPG)
Game 2: (6E) UNLV vs. (3E) Louisville @ Dayton: Anthony Bennett (17.6 PPG) / Russ Smith (18.4 PPG)
Game 3: (1E) Duke vs. (9E) UCLA @ Philadelphia: Mason Plumlee (17.5 PPG) / Shabazz Muhammad (18.5 PPG)
Game 4: (1M) Indiana vs. (9M) Cincinnati @ Dayton: Cody Zeller (16.6 PPG) / Sean Kilpatrick (18 PPG)
Game 5: (11W) California vs. (3W) Arizona @ Salt Lake: Allen Crabbe (19.5 PPG) / Mark Lyons (15.3 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games
Auburn Hills: Doug McDermott (22.5 PPG), Antoine Mason (18.9 PPG), Trey Burke (18.6 PPG), James Ennis (17.1 PPG), Jamaal Franklin (17 PPG)

My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Dayton: Russ Smith (18.4 PPG), Sean Kilpatrick (18 PPG), Anthony Bennett (17.6 PPG), Cody Zeller (16.6 PPG), Ryan Broekhoff (16.1 PPG)

Average Distance Traveled
First & Second Round Matchups: 738 miles
Regional Matchups (Assumes Seeds 4 or Better Advance): Indianapolis (M): 968 miles, Los Angeles (W): 3029 miles, Washington DC (E): 849 miles, Arlington (S): 1891 miles

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NATIONAL INVITATION TOURNAMENT

(1) Ole Miss (20-7) vs. (8) Xavier (15-11)
(4) Wyoming (16-9) vs. (5) Denver (18-8)
(3) Massachusetts (17-9) vs. (6) Washington (15-13)
(2) Southern Miss (19-7) vs. (7) Eastern Kentucky (20-7)

(1) Baylor (15-11) vs. (8) Texas A&M (16-11)
(4) Brigham Young (19-9) vs. (5) Northern Iowa (16-12)
(3) Air Force (13-10) vs. (6) Florida State (14-12)
(2) Arizona State (20-8) vs. (7) Saint Joseph's (15-10)

(1) Virginia (18-8) vs. (8) LSU (16-9)
(4) Indiana State (16-11) vs. (5) Arkansas (17-10)
(3) St. John's (16-10) vs. (6) Ohio (20-7)
(2) Tennessee (16-10) vs. (7) Richmond (16-11)

(1) Charlotte (18-7) vs. (8) Santa Clara (18-9)
(4) Alabama (17-9) vs. (5) Detroit (16-10)
(3) Stanford (16-12) vs. (6) New Mexico State (18-9)
(2) Iowa (17-10) vs. (7) Providence (15-12)

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL

(1S) Weber State (18-5) vs. (4S) East Carolina (12-10)
(2S) Illinois State (16-13) vs. (3S) Canisius (17-11)

(1E) Lehigh (17-7) vs. (4E) Georgia Tech (14-11)
(2E) Dayton (14-12) vs. (3E) Rutgers (13-13)

(1M) Loyola-Maryland (20-9) vs. (4M) UCF (17-9)
(2M) Murray State (18-7) vs. (3M) St. Bonaventure (13-13)

(1W) Utah State (18-7) vs. (4W) Texas-El Paso (14-12)
(2W) North Dakota State (18-8) vs. (3W) Northwestern State (15-7)

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COLLEGEINSIDER POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT

(1) Princeton (13-9) vs. (8) Florida International (15-12)
(4) Florida Gulf Coast (17-10) vs. (5) College of Charleston (20-8)
(3) Tennessee State (14-12) vs. (6) Albany (20-9)
(2) Western Illinois (17-7) vs. (7) Savannah State (15-10)

(1) Iona (15-13) vs. (8) New Jersey Tech (11-11)
(4) Bradley (16-13) vs. (5) Wright State (17-10)
(3) Pacific (13-12) vs. (6) California Irvine (14-13)
(2) Western Michigan (16-9) vs. (7) South Alabama (15-10)

(1) Vermont (18-9) vs. (8) Illinois-Chicago (14-13)
(4) Bryant University (17-9) vs. (5) Fairfield (17-12)
(3) Arkansas State (17-9) vs. (6) Delaware (16-13)
(2) Oral Roberts (16-11) vs. (7) Kent State (14-12)

(1) Evansville (15-13) vs. (8) Rider (16-13)
(4) George Mason (17-11) vs. (5) Oakland (14-14)
(3) Green Bay (14-13) vs. (6) Wagner (15-11)
(2) Boston University (17-11) vs. (7) North Carolina Central (16-8)

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Category: NCAAB
Comments

Since: Sep 4, 2006
Posted on: February 28, 2013 12:56 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 02/25/13

Beer,
 I do thank you for your expaination. And unfortunatly I do think you are right about the selection commitee bias. I just live near St.Louis and I saw what Majerus did for this program, and I would like to see it get the credit it deserves.



Since: Feb 27, 2013
Posted on: February 27, 2013 12:10 pm
 

Maryland and No Virginia. Really?


Hello-

Thanks for these excellent brackets. However to include  

La Salle (18-7), Temple (18-8), Villanova (17-10), Kentucky (19-8), Boise State (16-8), Maryland (19-8) and in last teams out -

Ole Miss (20-7), Baylor (15-11), all before Virginia is a travesty. :)

AND MARYLAND!?!?!?  Did you see UVa DOMINATE Md. at College Park a couple weeks ago?  Did you see the terps get dominated by Boston College?   come on!

I hope you'll be updating this fine bracket on Friday when Virginia takes Duke down in Cville tomorrow night at 9pm on ESPN.

I am shocked UVa isn't already in your bracket having shown we can go toe to toe at Miami, dispatched the Terps at College Park, took down the Pack and Heels at the JPJ, and paid back the Jackets (who beat us in January in Atlanta) by 28 this past Sunday. We also dispatched the badgers at Kohl early on - pretty much without our point guard jontel evans - and beat Tennessee as well. yes we have some sucky losses - but all due to said PG absence (and other players) and losses at George Mason and Delaware were Nov 9 and 13 respectively (closing in on 4 months ago) with ZERO POINT GUARDS of three we had coming into season (evans, teven jones, malcom brogdon). And yes - these are excuses - when this team that doesn't exist any more - lost to Delaware we then lost out on two high RPI games at the MSG in the preseason NIT and instead got two wins over lowly rated North Texas and Lamaar - yes our fault - but not intentional weak sister scheduling.

The loss to ODU on neutral site in December was a perfect storm of no Jontel Evans, Joe Harris with the flu, a super motivated in-state mid major, a red hot 3 baller, and horrible officiating. yes, excuses all.

Anyway we are not that team anymore. I wonder if you've watched us recently?   If  you still have Maryland in over us it seems likely you have not.  I do hope you'll be watching tomorrow night at 9pm eastern on ESPN when the clearly NCAA caliber Cavaliers take on duke.  thanks.

Since January - the losses at Clem, Wake and GT just cannot be looked at as terrible losses - see Wake over Miami, and Clem 1 possession from beating mia and ncsu. We scored 82 at the Deane Dome but were beaten by a red hot UNC, and came down to final 6 seconds tied at Miami last week. If you will go find that game and watch it - you'll see we are clearly an NCAA team. (without our disastrous rpi bombing Delaware/NIT debacle I'm confident our RPI would be in the 40's or 50's at worst. Do you follow Ken Pomeroy? We're only ranked 17 there - and 27 in the ESPN BPI power ratings.

anyway, thanks for your work. I look forward to the wahoos inclusion in your esteemed bracket at its next update.

Thanks for all the work.

DCWahoo




Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: February 26, 2013 11:58 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 02/25/13

Chmearm – Thanks for stopping by with your question.  One of the things I have a hard time explaining is the fact that I am trying to seed the teams based on how I think the Selection Committee would do so.  I’m basically assuming that name recognition, higher quality wins, and no “bad’ losses will certainly help Butler.  And truthfully, I still think Butler has a better profile…

Butler is 4-0 against the RPI Top 25 with wins over Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette, and UNC.  3 of those wins were away from home.  They have no bad losses on their resume except @Xavier (their only loss outside of the Top 60) and their non-conference RPI is in the Top 15 while the non-conf SOS is in the Top 50.

St. Louis has a nice resume as well but they are only 1-1 against the Top 25 (with their 1 win at home)  They have 3 losses outside of the Top 75 (including 2 at home).  The wins over Butler should get them a great seed but I’m not sure if their “overall” resume is enough for them to overtake Butler just yet.   Non-conference RPI is outside of the Top 50 and non-conf SOS is 120.  They are on fire right now and will continue to move up as they may not lose another game until the A-10 tourney.




Since: Sep 4, 2006
Posted on: February 26, 2013 1:43 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 02/25/13

Beer,
 Always like your insight, but I have to question this one.
Why does Butler rate a 5 in your bracket while St. Louis only rate a 7?
I realize that Butler defeated Indiana and Gonzaga, while SLU doesn't have that BIG win, but SLU has beaten Butler TWICE in the last few weeks. In a home and home series. The game in St. Louis was a blowout. SLU is two games in front of Butler in the A-10.
Welcome your feelings on this.



Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: February 25, 2013 4:24 pm
 

Beer's Bracket - 02/25/13

Dan - Good to hear from you... No, I did not have a good reason for that rematch other than I did not refresh one of the links in my spreadsheet!  The following matchups were impacted:

(6M) Illinois (19-8) vs. (11M) California (18-9) @Philadelphia
(6W) Pittsburgh (20-7) vs. (11W) La Salle (18-7) @Salt Lake
(7W) San Diego State (18-7) vs. (10W) WICHITA STATE (24-5) @Auburn Hills
(7S) Notre Dame (21-6) vs. (10S) Colorado (18-8) @Lexington

Looking forward to some awesome hoops over the next few weeks!



Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: February 25, 2013 11:20 am
 

Beer's Bracket - 02/25/13

Hey Beer, glad to see you back.

As always, great job with your bracket. I only notice one procedural error and you probably have a good reason for it---a potential California vs. Arizona matchup in round two. 


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